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Prediction of China's Exports to ASEAN Countries
Zhang Jin, Tang Hailin, Li Guoqi and Ruan Yan
Abstract Forecasting exports to ASEAN is an important precondition for China to formulate and adjust its policy of foreign trade. Due to various conditions of ASEAN countries, the single forecasting method cannot predict exports accurately. Considering ASEAN countries’ economic development level, imports from China and the relations with China, we divide ASEAN countries into three clusters. According to the different application of each forecasting method, cubic exponential smoothing method is chosen to predict China's export volume to the first and second cluster countries, and the improved multi-hierarchic recursive regression algorithm is used to forecast China's export volume to the third cluster countries. Based on the prediction of exports to ASEAN and great potential for cooperation, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.
Key words Stratification of ASEAN Countries; Exports; Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method; Improved Multi-hierarchic Recursive Regression Algorithm
Authors Zhang Jin, Professor and Doctorial Tutor, School of Transportation and Logistics of Southwest Jiaotong University, Executive Director at the branch center of China-ASEAN Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Development. Tang Hailin, Postgraduate for master’s Degree, School of Transportation and Logistics of Southwest Jiaotong University .
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文章来源：《中国—东盟研究》2017年第一辑